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Old 09-08-2006, 04:32 AM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 4,515
Default Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury

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we got lucky, end of story


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"End of story" does not mean what you think it does.

This isn't about luck. It's about making the right decisions. Almost all of the people who hedged 100% did not make the right decision, win or lose. They chose a +EV strategy that had a lower expected value than incomplete hedging (or betting even more on Miami, if they felt betting 11 to win 10 was favorable).

I'm willing to bet that your choice of Ed Miller, David Sklansky, Mason Malmuth, or BruceZ would agree with me.

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ps. do you grind black jack bonuses at $1 per hand too..lol

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Of course not, and I don't see why you think I would. The people who do are generally making serious mistakes, skipping other bonuses and life to reduce variance a tiny bit. That shares some similarities with the mistake I am criticizing, paying too much to hedge 100%.
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