Re: all in luck calculator
80% of stacks go in preflop. with AA vs KK. it doesn't matter whether a set is flopped, the money is going in anyway. 8 times out of 9 AA is ahead on the flop and is something like a 90% favourite. 90%*$2000*8/9 = $1600.
1 out of 9 times AA will be behind with like 10% equity:
10%*$2000/9 = $22.2.
so AA average equity is $1622.22.
let's say you had AA in all of these situations and you run bad and KK wins 3 of these 9 times. your total win is 6x$2000=$12000 when you should have won 9*$1622.22 = $14600. you ran bad by $2600 by my method.
if you only consider the money that went in on the flop, you ran bad by $260.
clearly $2600 is a better estimate than $260 in this case. if you only consider preflop equity, which is reasonable here, you should have won $14750.28, or $2750.28 more than you actually won.
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