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Old 11-22-2007, 09:30 AM
Rosslex Rosslex is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 35
Default Re: 200bb preflop decision? 25/50

OK, I recently read a thread about a live hand Donnacha o Dea played at EPT Dublin sidegames. It is almost identical to the line your villain has taken here - similar stakes, same positions, same table / player dynamic and same line by all players.

In that scenario DOD had seen his opponent get slightly out of line (similiar to your QT double up). He made the exact same limp squeeze and after some thought the hero (you) came back over the top as a resqueeze AI to which DOD insta folded his TT.

I would say in this case villain has either QQ, JJ, TT at best. Now we need to decide if he will fold any of those if you rrr AI. I would guess he will fold TT (calling it could ruin his table image making him look like a tilted station) but call JJ and QQ AI. I suspect he has you on a very wide range presently but if you rrr AI (particularly if you do it relatively quickly) he has to narrow it down to AK, AQ(maybe if thinks u are playing crazy) and pairs JJ+. Also, if you showed a tell with a shocked delay after his limp squeeze I suspect he will put u on AK more often than big pairs - especially if he has one himself and it is 6-max and therefore you probably have little fold equity, would you agree?...so do u wanna race for stacks?

Another reason I believe he does not have AA, KK here is that his limp squeeze doesn't make sense to me. No matter what he thinks you have whether it be air or big pair / big slick surely he is incorrectly pricing you out - thinking his big limp squeeze raise is going to induce a fold almost all the time. IMO its a play on you, it appears he wants to take the pot down right here and now. For these reasons even more so I believe he has TT or JJ more often than QQ. Also, unless you have a lot of history together then it is unlikely there is 10th level thinking going on as of yet at the table between the two of you.

Nevertheless I believe he will race his JJ+ here and likely fold TT or worse. If he thinks you are crazy he expects an insta fold but a rrr AI has to narrow your range and put him to a difficult test.

Overall I think you have to push here almost all the time. IMO AA, KK is unlikely holding for him and with some fold equity I think it is a +EV play for u to push.

P.S. Sorry for calling you Surley lol.
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