Re: When should blinds go up?
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As you can see, there's a lot of variance, which presents a challenge in trying to get the tournament to end by a certain time. In particular, the longest tournaments (the entries with 8% BB factors) I remember as being one of those all-in fests where the shortstack just always won and the chips just kept going back and forth ad nauseum.
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Yes, you're right that you can never be certain. What we do is have the BB at 2% at our target end time, and then after that, we double every 10 minutes so you're at 8% when you're only 20 minutes over your time. My group is mostly beginners, though, so we've never made it to 8% and only once did we get to 4%. To get beyond 2% you need two pretty good and evenly matched players, or you need the short stack to win several all-in races in a row.
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