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Old 09-10-2007, 12:34 AM
crashzzz crashzzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 47
Default Re: NL10: JJ in Middle Position

well, I figured he likely had AK,AQ,QQ maybe KK or KQs. He would have re-raised me PF with AA being OOP. Since he's a tight player and probably saw me as a tight player, I doubted he call my raise with weaker suited cards such as Axs.

So 3 out 40 possible hands would beat me.

so ~8% of the times he has the flush. The rest of the time he would be drawing and if he were bluffing (10% of the time), I assume he would fold it to my AI.

He has 8 outs if he's holding a higher diamond. Thus, ~17% of making his flush. The rest of the time (83%), he would be losing except when he would pair (has 9 outs to pair his A,K,or Q)

EV = (6.25$)(.10) + (-6.05$)(.08) + (-6.05$)(.92)(.17) + (10.90$)(.92)(.83)(.80) + (-6.05$)(.92)(.83)(.20)
= 0.63$ - 0.48$ - 0.95$ + 6.65$ - 1.00$ = +4.85$

So I guess it was ok to go all-in after seeing the turn, no?

edit: it's 17% for 8outs, not 32%
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