Re: NBA over/under win totals
I havn't read any of the thread yet. I'll give my initial reactions first then think it over more as I read through the thread.
Washington Wizards 39.5: I'll give a disclaimer that I'm a Wizards homer. With that said, this is the very first line that jumped out at me as exploitable. In 04-05 the Wizards won 45 games. In 05-06 they won 42 games. Last year it looked like they had finally started to put it all together. In late January they found themselves in 2nd place in the entire East, only Detroit ahead of them. Detroit was on a roll- they had just added Chris Webber and won something like 9 out of 11 games- the two losses? Both to Washington. It legitimately looked like Washington was making a run at the #1 overall seed! Gilbert Arenas was getting legit MVP consideration, Caron Butler had raised his game to a new All Star level, and optimism was high. That all ended when Butler and Arenas went down with injuries. Washington lost 15 of its last 20 games. Even still...they finished with 41 wins. How on earth are they only predicted to get 39.5 wins now? I guess their division is a bit tougher with R Lewis going to Orlando and J Rich to Charlotte...but still. I think this is the best line on the board, and those of you who follow my NFL picks know that I'm not a blind homer(have only picked the Redskins once this entire year and it was a winner). Also Jamison is playing for one last big contract, which can only help his efforts imo.
Detroit 50.5: I can make a legitimate argument for well more than 1/2 the teams in the East that they've improved their teams from last year, both through added playing and having young talent that should only get better. I can't do that for Detroit. This team won 64 games 2 years ago and slipped to 53 last year. They lose Chris Webber, and while you may mock him he helped fill the void of Ben Wallace a lot. Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess are a very old frontcourt that isn't nearly as intimidating defensively as the Pistons of a few years ago. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they finished in 3rd place in their division. I'd take the under.
Memphis 32.5: Everything that could go wrong went wrong with them last year. Two years ago they won 49 games. Conley is obviously a question mark, but Rudy Gay is showing tons of improvement and last year was good for Mike Miller to get some experience as a go to guy...he'll find things a lot easier this year with Gasol back to draw double teams. Adding Juan Carlos Navarro was a great move imo. He is experienced with good international competition. Darko will fit in well here...hes still supremely talented. PG Stoudamire/Conley, SG Miller/Navarro, SF Gay, PF Milicic/Warrick, C Gasol/Swift....thats a very solid and deep lineup. I wouldn't be surprised to see Memphis crush this line.
Utah Jazz 47.5: Remember Elton Brand 2 years ago when he put up career highs seemingly out of nowhere? And remember how he regressed last year? Same exact thing will happen to Carlos Boozer imo. The Jazz are a bit overrated becuase everything seemed to go perfectly for them last year and they had an easy road to the WCF so they are fresh in people's minds. I still think they'll get into the playoffs, but with Denver, Houston, and Golden State among others looking improved I think they'll be the 7th or 8th seed. Take the under.
L.A. Clippers 30.5: This team got bad in a hurry. Brand and Livingston are out. Sam Cassell really started to show his age last season(he'll be 38 in a month). Corey Magette is their best player. Thats not a good thing. Under under under!
Toronto 41.5: I think this team is really underrated....maybe its because they have so many foreign players that people don't know well. But I really like the foundation of Bosh/Bargnani...big men aren't easy to come by in this league. Ford/Calderon provide a solid PG duo. Adding Kapono really lets them space the floor. They won 47 last year...could it have been a one year fluke? Perhaps, but I still think theres good value in this line.
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