Re: AT, thirdpair + FD + GS on turn
@ Saikkonen, yes, I meant a possible semibluff on the turn.
I agree, he'd only call a turn c/r if we are behind but him being such a tight nit could we just sometime get him to fold a Q? In a big pot like this that would be a huge win.
(The sample is admittedly small but he is very tight for 6-max and his went to showdown is low.)
I think the problem with the semibluff is that the villain probably calls in this big pot even with a Q (definitely w/ JJ , AQ, QJ and probably with JT) and we'd have to bet the river OOP to get a fold - and even that might not be enough.
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Edit:
To discuss this further, Villain is raising from the BTN after a poster in CO. He's view of me should be tight. BB seems a bit loose though. Nevertheless, Villain could be raising with a bit wider range than we give are considering here.
In the best case we can have ~14-17 outs if behind (vs. KQ, Q9, QT) so c/r on the turn isn't necessarily that expensive. We have even 11 outs vs sets.
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