View Single Post
  #2  
Old 11-25-2007, 01:06 AM
RustyBrooks RustyBrooks is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 1,380
Default Re: Razz river: call or raise?

I like a raise on 6th. He will almost never re-raise you and you might get a free showdown. You'll get to act last on 7th and you can decide then what you want to do.

If you don't improve:
* if he checks to you, you pay the same amount as if you just called 6th and 7th.
* If he bets he probably has improved to at least a 6. Hard to fold though.

If you do improve:
* if he checks to you, you can bet. You'll get the same amount as if you'd just called 6th and raised 7th
* if he bets, you can raise, and you'll get one bet extra.

Raising 6th sometimes gives you the option to make an extra 1bb, rarely costs you more, and may give you some more information. If he re-raises 6th and he's anywhere near decent (i.e. he can see your cards over his) then I would expect him to have the hand he's representing (a 754)

Note that if you're behind on 6th, then you have 7 outs to improve (2s and 4s) so you'll make a 6 around 20% of the time. Also, given the action, any of his cards could have paired him, which gives you the best hand. In fact there's something like a 70% chance that he has (at least) one pair and a 20% chance that he has 2 pair, if I remember the basic statistic properly. Also, since there are not too many of his up-cards visible (we see just one 7 and one 5) the chances that he's paired is higher than if we saw a lot of his upcards in other places (in our hand, in other dead cards)

Overall I think you're ahead on 6th an awful lot.

In summary... I like your line with a raise on the end against someone who will fire every street until you put up a fight, especially if he'll call light when you raise 7th. Against many other opponents (more rational ones) I like to raise 6th and put some fear into them, so that I can manipulate 7th better.
Reply With Quote