[West]

[ QUOTE ]
The bellagio example is wrong because it is set by experts who are the best in the world. Thats like if Buffett got to pick the trading price of every company every day and then trying to beat this new supermarket. Obviously undoable after vig. But its not bellagio experts setting the price in the market, its the general poorly skilled public. even the bookies opinion from your example is going to be more highly skilled than the markets because he has some talent in this regard or he wouldnt be in the business. He is similar to mutual fund managers. Yet the market is worse because while there are semi competent mutual fund managers, there are also alot of irrational joe schmo buyers who drive prices or lines way past what is neutral EV setting up +EV bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's saying Buffett is the Bellagio and Joe Schmo is the market.

This may be a side point, but I'm not getting why Joe Schmo is necessarily better than a dart in his opinion. Obviously we should assume the market as a whole is, but why any one individual?