Re: Tourney situation. Omaha version of classic Holdem AA question
Against random it is 68%. It was 71% versus specific hand. I agree with your point. The other posters have repeatedly driven home the point that this is very high equity hand, and victory in hand makes deep stack play(By Tourney Standards) a possibility against donks, who spew chips.
My feeling is I would fold this hand 8 times out of 10 in tourney scenario where I am at bubble. To make this worse, I actually revealed my hand to villian b4 my raise and he still pushed. I was amazed that only one poster other than Phanekim, ever said that initial fold is correct play.
EV break down in my head in real cash terms are:
Allin has total Ev of 40 bucks profit assuming average finish of 2nd to last table if i win pot and nothing if I lose. This was based on 66% equity because I gave villian slightly better hand than reality dictated.
Folding is probably profit of 35 bucks. 90% chance I money if I fold, most of that time tables 3 and 4.
The better overall opponents in field are, the better this push is in my opinion.
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