Re: A tough variance problem (at least for me)
btw pzhon, I clearly owe an apology for this:
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Nobody else has commented on it at all, and your comments were not exactly self-explanatory.
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You were obviously assuming I had read the plethora of other threads on this topic, which were I not a lazy-ass bastard, would have been a perfectly valid assumption.
I'm reading through some of them now, but I'd still greatly appreciate a comment on the validity of jason1990's formula as a gross approximation to the problem, which is likely more than sufficient for the question that is typically asked here: "does this downswing even make sense"? Being able to spout off exact percentages would be ideal (but is pretty obviously not possible), but being able to spout off approximate probabilities is better than nothing at all.
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