Re: 200NL - C/R draw on turn?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you know a lot about standard WTSD%'s? Mine is at 19% and winning% at 53%, I think that's fairly low, but I'm also hyper-aggressive after the flop. I just don't like double-barreling a 52/5 here oop.
[/ QUOTE ]
i made my decision based on hand reading.
[/ QUOTE ]
He wasn't arguing with your logic, he was questioning your assumptions.
How do you get "Villain never has a flush here" when you don't know anything about villain's post-flop play?
[/ QUOTE ]
I think it's safe to say that a flush is a small part of villain's range, only because he is so loose that he clearly doesn't need a flush draw to continue on the flop. I would actually have his fold to cbet % if PaHUD wasn't such a shitter on Vista, but now I have to use Realtime. His agg is 1.
I'd been pretty aggressive on all my tables, and actually had a similar situation of having a flush draw and two overs and c/r ai on the turn on another table. I got ready to do it again here, but ended up C/Cing instead, because I wondered if the C/R as a standard line was semi-spewy.
But the more I thought about the hand after the fact, the more I thought that the only two real options were to lead or to C/R. Leading might be better only because a player like this is not going to bluff raise me ever. And these kinds of players are the ones we should be throwing lots of bets at, especially given looseness combined with semi-sane showdown numbers.
|