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Old 11-21-2007, 12:13 PM
kroeliewoelie kroeliewoelie is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 466
Default Re: A discussion with Corsakh - 3betting pairs from the blinds

My analysis:

MP opens
22+,A8s+,KTs+,QJs,T9s,98s, AJo+,KJo+ = 181 combinations

If we 3bet:
4bets: QQ+,AKs = 22 combinations. We fold.
calls: 77-JJ,AQ+,98s,T9s = 61 combinations
folds: everything else = 98 combinations
EV(MP folds/4bets)= 22/181*(-6)+ 98/181*2 = -0.72+1.08=0.36

On the flop:
We cbet, he
calls: JJ,TT(will raise turn),T9 = 16 (our equity 9%, assume 0%)
raises: AKo = 12
folds: AQ,98s,77-99 = 33
EV(calls preflop; call+raise+fold)=(16+12)/181*(-12) + 33/181*6 = -1.81+1.09 = -0.79

Total EV=-0.43

So 3betting against this range doesn't seem to be profitable. But if we were up against a loose button raiser who also raises 56s-78s, A2s-A7s, A8o-ATo+,98o and other stuff we can add at least 100 handcombinations to his range that he will have to fold preflop.

In that case the total EV is
22/281*(-2)+28/281*(-12)+33/281*(6)+198/281*2=
-0.15-1.2+0.7+1.4 = 0.75.

So when the openraiser has a tight range, 3betting is not good. If he's looser 3betting is +EV. On top of that calling is worse in the second case, because a lot of his range won't stack off if we hit a set.
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