Re: Got him in the middle
The key to the hand is "What kind of player is Seat 4?"
"So if we hit an ace, you never think he is checking behind?"
A.)NEVER, has value (no free cards and maybe a fold) and he will always check 7th, he has perfect position. Simple value bet.
What if we hit an open pair? Never checking behind?
B.)ALWAYS Checking
1) What range of hands is seat 4 putting us on?
C.)A draw
2)2) Given your answer to question one, what does he then do when we improve?
D.)Check
And here is a final thought----if you don't think a 5th street raise will slow him down, why not pop it on 5th and check raise 6th anyway? (not that I think this would work or be the correct line).
E.)Because I'm behind and need a card. I can't fold because of the pot size. For one big bet, maybe none, I see the river. So over 100 hands my average cost is about $5, maybe less, for a $90 pot. I do not like seat 4s betting pattern here. If I knew nothing about this player and this was his first hand, my conclusion would be "This guy is not just a fish but a WHALE". Yet to E, he is a solid player, "who got value for his hands". Thats why I ask E about the term "DECENT". An average losing stud player may call $12 on 4th, but he made it $18 with a DEAD HAND. This hand is a very EZ fold on 4th, after a call by E, and E raised. And then raised again on 5th. WTF!!! A player with a dead hand, building a pot that he can't get away from. ONLY REALLY STUPID PLAYERS DO THIS!!!!! You have to give him credit for 55 here if E is correct with his assessment. When someone pairs his doorcard and gets serious action, you need to be careful. Lets catch a card first and keep our cost low.
Now I think I have answered all your questions, If not, I'm sorry. Ask again.
PLEASE answer my questions. Your math, so we can see the effect over 100 hands. If not fine, but at least tell everyone what qualifies as a "BIG MISTAKE", dollarwise or as a percentage of the pot?
And most of all, please answer this question from a previous post:
And the MILLION $ Question 7, is it a BIG mistake considering your following statement:
"In my responses I had lots of time to look things over and run different scenarios, Elec only had a few seconds."
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