[JavaNut]

Look what you have done, now I've gone and opened my statistics book. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] (I've heard about one guy whose little daugther told everyone that her daddy was learning sadistics) [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Modelling tourneys, either sng or mtt is not that easy as the result clearly isn't a normal distribution.

If you don't get in the money you will have -1 buy-in, or in the case of rebuy/add-on multiple buy-ins (except for the fact that you don't pay the fee for the rebuys/add-ons).
And then there is freerolls.

If you get into the money you get ~2..n buy-ins approximately. (But what is the buy-in for free-rolls).

You'll have to stick with +/- $ on each tournament, but you need some other distribution to model it.

Playing only sngs with a fixed price structure you could model this as a multinominal distribution (I hope it is called that in english, statistics was one of the only courses where we didn't have books in english)

Assuming a 50-30-20 price structure and 10 entrants and a fee of 10% of the buy-in you get either -1 buy-in (including fee), +1.8, +2.7 or +4.5 buy-ins.

You can then estimate the probability of each category based on your previous history.

Your winrate is then easily calculated based on the probability of each category.

You can then test a later sample towards that result to see if you are still around that or if your score has shifted.