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Old 09-09-2007, 11:54 AM
Sat0ri Sat0ri is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 41
Default Re: Official review thread, Bond18, Tilt $75

This might be somewhat basic but hand 106 got me thinking, is this a standard resteal here? because my first impression was it might be overly loose. This poked me to do some analysis on the hand:

Villain's opening range: 22+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo
Villain's calling range: TT+,AQs+,AQo+

does this sound like a reasonable assumption for a typical villain here?

Assuming the above, he folds 60% of his opening range to your resteal making your stack 5815.
In the other 40% he calls and your hand is 28% against his calling range giving you 0,28 equity in the 9630 pot for average of 2696.
This totaled together makes your average stack after the play 0,6*5815+0,4*2696=4567 making the play pretty much zero EV.

Note that your EV should actualy be a little bit worse because the above calculation discounts the possibility of blinds waking up with a monster. But even if you exclude those posibilities you are making a high variance, zero EV move which does not sound like a good idea for a winning player.

Anyhow I would love to hear your thoughts about this, especialy if I messed up big time with the assumptions.
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