Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B
Again, I am responding before seeing other responses...
1) I now read BB as an excellent player. This is a great bet designed to get us to think. He either a) already has a made hand, b) is on a draw, or c) is on a complete bluff. He is giving us pot odds to draw to anything --- overcards, a draw ourselves, whatever, so he wants a call. He is not afraid of us drawing out, so I doubt he has top pair, a set, or two pair (of course, he could be dumber than he appears). He either already has a made straight or has a good draw or is setting up a pure bluff on the turn. If we call this bet, he WILL bet the turn (if it is a semi-bluff he MIGHT check the turn and hope for a free card) trying to make us make a decision whether to pot-commit ourselves. If we re-re-raise, he can drop weak draws or pure bluffs and take all our chips if he does have the straight. If I call and he's on a pure bluff, I can get HIM to blow off chips on the next card, whereas if I re-re-raise I'll lose him. If he is on a semibluff, there are so many possible cards that can beat me I can't know for sure on the next card whether he is betting because he made his hand or is betting to scare me away (however I will have position). If he has the straight and I reraise all-in, he WILL call me but at least I have 4 outs twice to make the boat. This is a tough call. Due to the nature of survival in tournaments I can still accumulate chips if I reraise all-in and he folds, and if he calls my all-in bet on a decent draw, say a flush draw with overcards where he THINKS he has more outs than he does, then I am significantly +EV. So I reraise all-in.
2) He has either a made straight (86), Ax of hearts (particularly if the x pairs the board or is an overcard), JT,J8,KQ,KJ,KT,QJ,QT,Q8,T8,87,76,64 of hearts (I doubt he would have called the preflop raise with other possible heart combinations), and the following hands without one or zero hearts: T8,86,98,76,65, or it is a "pure" bluff with a small pocket pair: 22,33,44,66,88. Again, this is not exhaustive but if he is the kind of player I am thinking about, these are a reasonable guess.
3) There are no future decisions with my raise all-in.
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