[Clarkmeister]

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Even so, though, why would Joe check the turn with 99/77?

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One could also ask why he'd check the turn with TT.

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Because there are a lot of ways that he's beat here?

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Oh, I know that's what Joe was thinking. What I wanted was a correct answer. Checking TT here is horrific.

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I c/r 3-bet the flop and have to call two-cold when it's back to me while holding two of the draw cards. I guess you are trying to say the Doug spews a lot of flops? Because it sure doesn't feel like I am ahead all to often. Please explain yourself, thanks.

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You've got two thinking LAGs in a bloated pot, one with position on a connected super drawy board. I'd expect to be up against all sorts of pair plus and ten hands. Yeah, you've got two tens, but the action overwhelms the straight bayesian analysis. The pot is bloated and both of your opponents will do whatever they need to in order to drive a 3rd person out of the pot.

Honestly, if you don't lead the turn, IMO it can only be because you are going to checkraise. The pot is way too big to be passively "hanging on" with an overpair that has oodles of outs. The problem with this is that if DFM gives you the opportunity to checkraise, you're not in great shape as he's very willing to take a free card here, and will autocap the flop with all of the hands that would take one. So given that he'll check behind a ton and bet the hands that you don't like, we are back to the principal option, which is betting the flop.

I just think that the thought that "there's lots of action, I must be behind" is real dicey with two thinking lags, a coordinated board and a massive pot. Even in Nate's range of hands you are ahead NOW way more than the overall equity numbers and that's what you need to consider with one card to come. Either give them a chance to fold something with outs, or get them to pay for their draw. But letting it get checked through when it's really a strong likelihood is just not good IMO.

As for the other streets, I've already touched on preflop. The river is a bad fold too. Doug will absolutely take a stab on there with hands that missed, or small pair hands he thinks are no good (T8 being an example) especially after the turn and river action with a king hitting the board. I don't know how often you are good here, but it's dang sure more than 7% of the time or whatever.

I agree with the sentiment that Doug should've bet the flop but only because I think you lead with a set on the flop. Plus, the presense of DeNiro makes a huge difference and greatly sways it to betting.