[goofyballer]

Anyone saying to check the river: Some TAGs love finding reasons to look people up, and when orange 3 barrels this board he's representing a super strong hand (like, a set or AK or AT basically) or he has air pretty much all the time. It's pretty easy for villain to look at that range and find a call with some marginal pairs in this spot. For example, two hands I played recently vs TAGs (borderline nits, even):

1. I open JJ, he calls in blinds. Flop 977 two spades, he check-calls. Turn 6s, he checks, I elect to check behind without a spade and play bluffcatch. River is offsuit king, he checks, I'm like "lol time to represent a bluff" and bet $54 into $74 pot or so, he calls with pocket 4s.

2. I open T9dd in SB, BB calls. Flop Q84 one diamond, he calls my cbet. Turn Kd giving me gutshot + fd, I bet, he calls. River is rag diamond giving me flush; I bet like $142 into $170. Obv I should bet here, but the size is a bit bigger than a lot of you would do, and the reason is that my line is so ridic strong that I'm basically representing the nuts (flush, KQ, set) or air in a spot where I'm fairly unlikely to have any of those nut hands. He calls with KT.

So, that's why I think valuebetting hard in spots where villains think it's unlikely you have the hand you're representing is a good thing and should absolutely be done here. I'd go between 72 and 80.