View Single Post
  #3  
Old 10-22-2006, 05:44 PM
jjshabado jjshabado is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 1,879
Default Re: Spew, or value betting a bunch of draws?

I'm guessing the flop was a bad raise. You have 3 outs to a likely split pot (so call it 1.5 outs for you), 1.5 outs to the nut flush, and call it 2 outs for any A or J given that an A gives a K a straight, and a J may not help you against a straight already out there, and a J can still lose if the flush comes.

So optimistically you have 5 outs or 10-12% chance to win the pot. Your hand is such that I don't see you buying yourself any outs by raising (flush/straight draws are all alling) So the best you can hope for is that your raise will be called by everybody (ie those people with really weak hands that are basically drawing dead against your outs stay in the hand and give you extra money).

So you're putting in 1/6 of the extra money in the pot where you're only going to win around 1/9 of the money. So I believe it was a bad raise.

On the turn I think its bad because you're facing the field with 2 big bets when you have to be pretty confident you're drawing to the 9 (I would even be tempted to call this 7 or 8 flush outs to compensate for the fact somebody likely already has a flush) flush outs, and thats it. By facing the field with 2 big bets I think you're knocking out people that you want in the hand, but not knocking out a made flush already (which you're likely up against). I'd go for the call here because if a spade comes you're almost guaranteed the nut hand (Q might give somebody a full house) so the more callers the better.

I welcome comments on this analysis. I like to know where I'm [censored] up poker theory.
Reply With Quote