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Old 09-12-2007, 02:44 PM
gordo16 gordo16 is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: STLMO
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Default Re: deep river spot with \"obvious\" aces $10-$20

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How can you assume that Hero has aces, even without history? His raise could be an isolation raise with a lot of premiums to get heads up with the tilty LAG.

Besides, most people aren't going to try to get aces to lay down in this spot. It'll be pretty hard for a decent player to show up with a hand that beats aces on the turn very often.

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The raise-reraise preflop with a somewhat short-stacked tilty player in the hand with you, is, in my eyes, 90% of the time going to be aces. A good player is obviously not going to expect a fold from tilty-villain, or realistically, even deep villain, given the preflop betting. That being said, I just think that it's flat out wrong that a good player is not often going to show up with a hand that beats aces on this turn. The flop of 225 is a perfect flop for deep-villain to slowplay a flopped boat or tips on given exactly your kind of reasoning. Moreover, its a great hand to draw to a straight with because again, people with your kind of mindset will continue to bet and pay the straight off. It's also a good call with a straight draw because you can also bluff a heart. Villain can also safely call with a flush draw here because they can represent a flat-call with trips or a flopped boat if need be.

I also don't agree with the statement that most people aren't going to try to get aces to lay down in this spot. In my eyes, this is a perfect spot to get aces to lay down.

Although, I do agree with the reasoning that if you are going to be potting the flop, you just can't check the turn. That play truly does leave your hand face up and if I was the villain I would pot with pretty much any river aside from a 2 or an A.
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