Re: Odds on all players in National Heads-Up Championship
WOW, rough day for the oddsmakers. NONE of the top 21 favorites made the final eight!!! In the other set of odds none of the top 13 reached the final eight. DN did a little better, going 18-14 in round one, but 2-3 in round two (matches that he predicted both round 1 winners), and none if his top eight actually made the final eight.
My conclusion is that the odds on individual players is more "tightly" packed than everyone believes, with the favorite no better than 35-1 (which would require about a 55% chance to win each round), and probably closer to 40-1. I would guess the "median favorite" in round one to be about 54% (with the aver fav about 55% due to a couple outliers), and the median fav about 52% post round 1. In other words, if you paid standard football vig. (11-10 odds), and had to pick all 31 matches post round 1, you wound be a loser in the very long term.
So if someone with a 48% chance winning is considered an "upset", then yes, ther were a lot of upsets. Blame the structure---I have heard some describe it as "good" or "reasonable", but I don't think it even comes close to these terms. A good structure for this event might be 50% more starting chips, double the length of each level, and start by playing best 4 of 7 in round one (followed by 5 of 9, 6 of 11, etc.).
|