[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
just calling UTG with AA is stupid



[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I am stupid because I do it occasionally.

There is 1-way to make JJ on this board, and 3 ways to make AA. There are 12 ways to make AK, 3 ways to make AQs and 1 ways to make AJs. Based on his stats, I don't see any other hand showing up here unless he plays AQo or KK-QQ bad.

So, 5 hands have you crushed, and you are ahead of 15 hands. How many of the 15 hands call a push? I am guessing AK calls a push most of the time. The push would be 137 into a 145 pot. He gets 2:1 on the call. He needs 33% equity. I can see AK thinking hero has AQ/AT/A7 or a busted flush draw in this spot often enough to justify a call.

Hell, even if AK folded 7/12 times here, you still get 5 calls. Assuming AA, JJ, AJs also call, 5/10 or 50% of the time you get a call you win. You need to win 50% of the time to breakeven on the bet.

I think you have to value bet it. If he has AA, JJ, AJs, then there is nothing you can do.