[Borodog]

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Paul is in third place behind Giuliani and Romney in prediction markets, having surpassed both John McCain and Fred Thompson.

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I am totally obsessed with this. I stopped posting intrade updates because no one seems to really think much of it for some reason, but I think it's clearly awesome stuff. He's the THIRD most likely to win according to the betting market, and most msm outlets still treat him like he's a drunk Tancredo.

I love it. Everything is so encouraging of late.

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Can you explain something to me about how this works? Does Ron Paul being at 9 (or whatever he is at) mean that I can bet against Paul being nominated at this number (and not have all my potential winnings swallowed up by commission). In other words, can I place a wager that will cost me $100, which I will lose if Paul IS nominated, but where I will WIN $9 if he is not?

If you can't do this, then I don't think this is at all an accurate measure of his chances. Betting markets are generally good predictors when they attract an equal amount of money on both sides.

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Yes, you can both bid and ask, i.e. buy and sell.

Edit to add: In fact you have to, since contracts are made between buyers and sellers, and not the "bookie".