Re: Peters v. McCline
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If you want to bet -750 on a fighter go ahead, but I have been burned a few times doing so (Once I even bet a bonus on a site on -600 on McCline vs. Zuri Lawerance how ironic is that)
This is boxing all it takes is one perfectly landed punch to end a fight or a twisted knee and injured patella.
Not to discredit you Post, but it doesn't take a whiz to tell people that you like a -750 fighter or that a -750 fighter has a good chance to win. That is clearly reflected in the odds.
The only time I would even think about laying odds like -600 and above on a fighter is if that said fighter is someone like Mayweather or Bernard Hopkins who has impeccable defense and even then they have to be taking on a total can.
Peter and McCline do not fit into each category.
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If this is your reasoning, then you should take McCline on 5Dimes, where he is +700 (Peter is -1000).
In order to beat a -750 line, you have to win the bet more than 88.24% of the time. That is all that matters. You can't say "never lay X amount of chalk".
Regarding your comments, Peter has an absolute iron jaw and simply cannot be knocked out by a lucky punch from McCline. If McCline does get a stoppage, it will be because Peter is exhausted and is getting hit repeatedly. This is obviously a very unlikely scenario.
Wladimir Klitschko (a much bigger puncher than McCline) hit Peter with all kinds of big punches, and Sam showed zero effects, until a huge left hook finally buckled his legs in the 12th round (he did not go down). I am not saying it is 100% impossible for McCline to score a one punch knockout, but it really is almost impossible.
I think Peter wins this fight 95%+ of the time. Since he is only at -800 at many books, I have to revise my estimated edge downward a bit (I am not 100% certain of my analysis). Still, if I think I have an edge, I won't pass it up - even it means laying a lot of chalk.
One other thing to mention is that Peter is the defending "Champion", is expected to win, and is considered a possible future star. McCline, on the other hand, is a 37 year old who has already had multiple (unsuccessful) title shots. We all know that McCline is not gonna get the benefit of the doubt on the scorecards.
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