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Old 01-09-2007, 05:49 PM
UtzChips UtzChips is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 800
Default Re: Fold this AK PF?

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..............So let's say the villain has AA-TT, AK, AQs. Let's also say that he'll fold TT and JJ half the time and AQs all the time if the hero re-raises pre-flop...........So there are a total of 36 hands the villain could have..........

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AA=3 KK=3 QQ=6 JJ=6 TT=6 AK=9 AQ=12 : Total 45 hands


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and he's going to fold 9 of them (half of TT/JJ and AQs).

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1/2 of TT = 3 1/2 of JJ = 3 & AQ = 12 Total hands:18
(You did say Villian would fold AQ all the time)

So the Hero will win Preflop 40% of the time.

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The rest of the time the hero is a 40/60 dog.

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According to Pokerstove, AK v. TT+,AK:
Wins 28.13 Loses 45.85% Draws 13.01%

So Hero wins 40% of the time Preflop
Wins 28.13% of the time Postflop
Draws 13.01% of the time Postflop

Stands behind the rail 45.85% of the 40% of the time that Villian calls: .40 * 45.85 = 18% of the time.

We can stop right there. 88% chance he will still be in the game with either an almost doubled stack, splitting the pot, or winning the pot preflop.

That's too good to be true! All In Baby!

That is, if Villian will fold JJ,TT 1/2 the time and AQ all the time.........
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