[BobJoeJim]

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Enough with the small talk. What do you think the line will be and who are you going to take? I haven't watched enough of Oregon to know for sure, but I am positive that ASU is deserving of their ranking.

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I think the line will be ASU (-3). ASU will cover.

If you can hold Oregon under 30 points they are very beatable if you have a competent offense. Cal held Oregon under 30 and beat them. USC did the same and came pretty close, and failed because their offense looked anything but competent (minus the occasional spark). Can Arizona State hold them under 30? I don't see why not. They stop the run almost as well as USC, and their pass D is one of the best in the country. The top 3 leaders for interceptions in the Pac 10 are all from ASU.

Three of the five Pac 10 teams Oregon has played have put up 30+ on them. There is no reason I can see why Arizona State can't put up 40.

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Two of those three Pac Ten teams that scored over 30 (31 and 34, to be precise) did it while giving up 55. Oregon's defense isn't spectacular, but it's better than people give it credit for. Those two games you mention were largely a function of how often they got the ball. Scoring over 30 while holding Oregon UNDER 30 is a much much more difficult task. Cal did it, when Oregon turned the ball over four times in the fourth quarter. I wouldn't count on Oregon doing that again, though.

USC has one of the best defenses in the country, and played spectacular defensive football all game long, to hold Oregon to 24 points, ASU has a very good defense, but I don't think they're up to USC's caliber. Key stat: USC was allowing 2.2 yards per carry prior to the Duck game, ASU is allowing 3.2 yards per carry. Oregon just has too dominant of a rushing game for that extra yard to be anything but a big red flag.

Don't get me wrong, ASU is a great team, and it should be a great game. Your analysis is off, though, and there's no way ASU should be favored. Which is why they aren't.