Thread: grrrrrrrrrrrr
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Old 09-18-2007, 07:25 PM
ghbond ghbond is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 11
Default Re: grrrrrrrrrrrr

The most important factor is the playing style of MSampoerna, which I don't know. If he's a goof who's just as likely to be playing the 7To as a PP, we might want to call. So assuming he's ur average player, his push range includes Ax, PP, KQ-K9, QJ, suited connector, and air. Since he is betting behind two strong hands, one of them Grim*, he has to figure on a call, and figure one of them for an A. Given that, he likely has AA, AK, AQ, or PP. Since we are ahead of only one of those hands with our AK, it is a heads-up fold.

But it isn't heads-up. We still have another potential villian to act, who can push more of our equity into this thing now, or after the flop if he chooses. We still have to make a hand, and since most flops miss most hands, our problems compound when he wants us to push more after the flop and we still don't have a pair.

He's expecting one of us to call, and to beat us in a showdown. While AK is usually a call in a tournament, that's because you are fighting time, and you only get to see so many good hands. Even in a tournament, when there are multiple raises in front of me, I fold AK unless I have to make a move or I'm up against real small stacks. I rarely regret that move.

When it's cash, AK is way stong after we've flopped our pair, but in this case, it's grrrrrrr, we gotta fold.
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