[evanski]

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I understand that you arent ahead of a ton of hands he is value betting, and he isnt bluffing a ton, but look at it from villains perspective.

You flatted preflop, then just called on a flop with a spade draw and ace or whatever. He doesnt figure you can have AQ or AA since you flatted preflop (i dont know you so maybe you can smooth call AQ or AA preflop, but most villains in at higher stakes will take that out of your range) so he figures the best hand you can have is 33 or maybe some weird Q9 or Qx hand. I would say Q9 is the best possible hand you can show up with given earlier action in his eyes. If you can't have the top two or three hands in your range here and he is aware of his image, a bluff here becomes much more likely.

no one can say if he is on that level, but if my opponent was close to this rationale i think i call. This would assume he is capable of turning some made hands into bluffs as well as bluffing missed draws (they all missed i could see him def having like J10s or something). One more thing to consider is that he was up to 50k, and as now down to 25k or whatever. Whenever players that you don't recognize as regulars experience those swings, they are more likely to over value hands or shove in bluffs or semi bluffs to try to desperately regain control of the match. I'd call.

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This is pretty much exactly what went through my head and I think really solid analysis. I think against a trickier opponent whos capable of thinking at that level I would have an easier time talking myself into a call. Thing is, I didnt really think this guy was. I dunno, sometimes its hard for me to figure out exactly how hard my opponent is thinking about stuff, particularly since a lot of moves hu seem to map to 1st level thinking and 12th level thinking, something Ive always found kind of amusing (ie, Im going to raise huge, no way he can call! vs what you just said).

I think the 50k to 25k point is very valid though, and it wasnt something I thought of at the time.