Re: A bit of a playalong from a video hand of mine..
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I would still value bet this, but not expect to get paid that often. He seems like the type that is aggressive when he is actually holding a, albeit sometimes marignal, real hand or draw. I think you can trust a raise means you're beat on this board and if you check he will be too scared to bet anything except a hand that beats you.
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I have to be ahead 55% of the time I'm called for a bet to have any value. I also have to be confident that I'll never be bluffraised. It's a weird spot because I'm more of a favorite if I bet than if I check-call, but betting here seems like it shows less expectation than check-calling due to my semilimited reads.
Rob
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