Re: Pitching Probabilities
I can pass on to you what I use for projecting W/L for my fantasy projections each year. I project a pitchers W-L record based on his average innings per start, his ERA, and his expected run support.
I assume that a pitcher who averages 6 innings per start will factor in the decision 66.7% of the time (I'm not sure what the exact number is, or where I got this from. But it has always worked pretty well). Basically it is IP/start divided by 9 to get "decision %". I multiply that % times the number of starts I project the pitcher to make, and then run that through Bill James W-L forumla, using the pitchers projected ERA and and his teams expected runs/game. That gives me that pitchers expected W-L record.
Like I said, it's not an exact science (I don't have a team of statisticians like BP, I'm a one man gang), but it usually gives me a relatively good idea for the season. I'm not sure how it would apply for a single game application. Let me know if you find this helpful in anyway with what you are doing.
|