Re: Oh Boy....
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Things that take into account the electoral college, polls that place Paul against any of the top tier Republicans, common sense. Betting lines on political events are kind of funny...particular for third-party candidates (which is really what Paul is.) People who agree with the candidate overvalue him WAY more than supporters of a top tier candidate.
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If I go do my PhD I am going to write about this. I think, but do not know, that betting markets are the best determinant of a winner. I also you suspect you might be right about third party supporters overvaluing their candidates chances.
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