Re: RESULTS
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ILP,
Why is a fd so unlikely bc he checked? He knows you are good/aggro.... maybe he is afraid of you raising for one of many reasons and shutting out the field.
Whereas if you bet he will get excellent odds on his draw and the chance to pump. Sure, it might get checked through and he will lose value in that case, but all things considered it does not seem totally illogical....
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I think a FD is extremely illogical for any decent aggressive player in this spot. He's second to last to act in a decent sized pot on the exact kind of board where a semibluff bet has the highest probability of winning this pot unimproved on the flop or turn. Not betting a FD in this spot is a critical mistake IMO. Not betting here is analogous to not doubling down in Blackjack when you have an 11 vs the dealers 6 showing. I did not think this player was capable of making these kind of "critical mistakes". I was wrong.
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