Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn
I don't think we have enough FE for it to work. Excluding re-raise and simplifing the river action I see this scenario:
<ul type="square">[*]Raise 5k: (1-y)% of time villains fold => net 3500[*]Raise 5k: y% of time CO calls and MJ folds...
(3/11) river a win. chk, bet, fold => net 8500
(8/11) river a loss. bet, fold => net -5000[/list]
We break even when
(1-y)(3500) + y[ (3/11)(8500) + (8/11)(-5000) ] = 0
y = 72.6%
So in this simple example we need a fold 27.3% of the time to break even. I don't think we are getting it nor can we make up the difference in the river play.
--Jubei
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