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Old 11-09-2007, 12:32 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
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Default Re: How often are my KK\'s up against AA Preflop?

[ QUOTE ]
The odds of getting dealt KK are 1 in 221. You've been dealt a few less than normal, but nothing too unusual there.

The odds of running KK into AA depend completely on the number of opponents at the table. If it's a heads up game, the odds are 1 in 48841 hands. At a 6 man table it's 1 in 9768 hands. At a 9 man table it's 1 in 6105 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

These numbers come from 221*221/(N-1), where N is the number of players. This is an approximation since the hands are not independent. This post gives the method to get the exact answers for this and similar problems, along with a more accurate approximation at the bottom. Results are given for 10 and 6 player tables, with a link to some results for 9 and 4 player tables. For this problem, the numbers given in that post assume that you already hold KK, and give the odds that AA is out.

For a 10-player table, we see that the odds of AA being out when you hold KK is about 21.8-to-1, or 1 in 22.8. Since we get dealt KK 1 time in 221 hands on average, to get the overall probability of being dealt KK and facing AA we multiply 22.8 by 221 to get about 1 in 5039. This is 6 in 30,234, which would be right in line with the OP's results if he were on a 10-player table.
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