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Old 10-10-2006, 01:16 PM
SixForty SixForty is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,258
Default Re: Live 15/30 top set hand

Being an unknown, it's tough to balance his range here. Since he waited until the turn to raise, I think that either the turn helped him, or that he felt he was strong enough on the flop to slowplay.

If he felt he was strong on the flop, then either 33 or 22 are a big part of his range. He could also just be over aggressive with a big Q, like AQ or KQ, or even QJ if he's really aggressive. If he's super loose preflop, he might have 32s. I would discount somewhat all the non-set hands that I just mentioned though, since his play doesn't fit the normal way most people would play those hands (ie, most don't limp 32s, most raise AQ preflop, and most aren't taking something like KQ to 4-bets on the turn here)

If the turn helped him, then we are looking at 44, 43, A5, and 65. All 4 of these hands could easily be played the way that Villain played, even if he was sane.

So I think that you are probably ahead here. But I think that 4-bets is very close to the pivot point of value - the fulcrum if you will. And by that, I mean, it is the point where a raise from you stops getting value because he will only call with most hands worse than yours, but will reraise again with most hands better than yours.

So with position here, I'll just call the 4-bet now. Since he acts first on the river, you can ensure that at least one bet goes in there. If he bets, call. If he checks, bet. If the board pairs, you can raise his bet then.
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