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Old 05-26-2007, 01:28 PM
Andy B Andy B is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
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Posts: 9,170
Default Re: Trying to improve at stud tournies

I would probably raise third street in a cash game. In a tournament where you're a little short and several people have limped, I think you have to just call.

Bet double on fourth and hope that they all go away. When JJ calls, he should have at least two pair. Not that people always have what they should in a $3 tournament. On fifth, you have an easy, easy fold. There's a pretty good chance that the other guy is full already. If he's at all decent, he will be. Even if he has two random hole cards, he has a good chance of filling up anyway. Overall, the chance of his having or making a full house is about 40% if he's playing every hand for a double bet on fourth, which he probably isn't. Meanwhile, a bunch of your hearts are gone. By my calculations, you've got a 26% chance of making a flush on fifth street. So if you're up against random hole cards, you'll win about .26 x .40 or about 10% of the time. And it's probably significantly worse than that. The calls on fifth and sixth are pretty horrible.
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