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Check out this
link.
If you draw a line with the same slope as years '97-'02, and continue it across the chart, you'll get the approximate value of homes today. That looks like the prices need to fall to about the "150" mark on the chart. Thats still a long way down, 30-40% from today's prices.
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......my guess is more like 15-20% over the next 18 months.