Re: AT
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I believe the point is that if you have the BB beat, then what is the button capping the flop and calling the turn with besides a flush draw? And if you have the button beat, then what is the BB hanging around with, besides a flush draw?
Even if they are terrible, they both generated action independently, so it's hard to see one of them hanging around with some weird PP. Overplayed big pairs are almost out of the question because of preflop.
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I can't think of anything BB could have played well. If he has a fd, his turn donk is completely retarded. There are other hands he could have where the turn donk would be less retarded, maybe even arguably good (T8?) but usually he is a sub-par player who will have a holding that will surprise us (some pp or even other crap). Button's flop cap and turn call does mean he probably has the flush draw. This does not make the river fold good, however, because I don't think it means he has the fd more than 60-70% of the time. He could have the other T, or an over(slow)played AA-QQ that realizes it might be in trouble on the turn. You're probably beat on the river, but getting ~14:1, it's a pretty bad fold.
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Right, but if he has the other T, (remembering that this is at most 30-40% of the time) then what can the BB possibly have that we beat? Even bad plays make sense in somebody's head. Only beatable hands I can possibly see a bad BB having is 99 or 77 and it's a real reach.
And aren't the cases where he slowplayed AA preflop and THEN overplayed it postflop rare enough, discounted by the fact that the BB may beat us ANYWAY even after all that, make it less than 1/100? Those probabilities get small quickly when you mulitply.
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