[VarlosZ]

401/402o
413/414o
308
407/408u


Jets/Texans OVER 39.5 -- This is the Lock of the Year as far as I'm concerned (which means I like it to go over, say, 62% of the time). Both teams are considerably better on offense than defense, the weather is clear, and even their special teams favor offensive production. Granted, both teams have averaged almost exactly 39.5 total points points per game this year, but that's mostly to do with the fact they've both played very defense-oriented schedules so far. This line is based on first-level thinking -- use second level thinking and put yourself in a strongly +EV spot.

Panther/Redskins OVER 36 -- Jason Campbell is better than the average backup, and is probably an immediate upgrade over Brunell. As such, Washington is still a strongly offense-oriented team, while Carolina is much closer to neutral than most people probably realize. This line is six or seven points too low.

Chiefs -1 over Broncos -- The Chiefs, like the Broncos, are monsters at home, and Jay Cutler will be starting for Denver. Even though Plummer has been very mediocre this year, and Cutler should have a succesful career, Jay Cutler is still a rookie, in his first start, against a very good defense on the road. Besides, KC and Denver haven basically played at the same level so far this year, so even if Plummer were starting a one point spread would be pretty ridiculous.

Vikings/Cardinals UNDER 38.5 -- Arizona is somewhat defense-oriented, Minnesota is very defense-oriented. Line should be more like 36.5.