Re: Fake Math Question
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He's beating 42, 43 and three two, and tying 54 and 53. It was probably an excellent online read by a soon-to-be pro.
As for the OP, I'm sure there actually is a good way to estimate. Survey the online players, get a decent sample size, define what counts as a mistake, get some data form the software companies about their inside malfunctions, guesstimate any bias or lies, and extrapolate a general area. It'd probably be pretty close to the actual number.
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Ok, so any guess?
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I love Fermi questions, so I'll bite. I assume that if I misclick on Monday and win $1 extra, then misclick Tuesday and lose $1 extra, you mean that $2 has "changed hands due to technological errors."
All numbers are extremely rough, quick guesses, but that's the point of Fermi questions anyway. Also, I'm going to just start with misclicks, and handle freeze-ups and other errors later.
Avg number of misclicks per avg player: 1 per 50,000 hands.
Avg "money change" due to a misclick: 1 BB.
Avg BB size: $5 (?? I started to average the games from Stars, but decided I had better things to do).
I believe Party gets like 2000 hands per minute-ish, right? For fun, let's say that 10,000 hands per minute are being played on "all the major sites," with an average of 7 players per hand.
Every 5 minutes, 7 misclicks occur, so $35 per 5 minutes = $420 per hour.
Something on the order of $100-$1000 dollars/hr seems somewhat reasonable. Anyone think that the order of magnitude is way off?
~MagicMan
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