View Single Post
Old 11-27-2007, 03:15 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: L.A.
Posts: 3,633
Default Re: 3/6 limit third nut flush

Hi Seb - I think your starting hand is marginally playable. I'd want to see the flop with it as cheaply as possible from the Button, which you do. Fine.

Then you miss a playable fit with the flop. Your opponents check and you bet. So long as you know you do not have a playable fit and realize you are bluffing (or making an extremely thin bet if that makes you feel better) fine. You're highly unlikely to take this pot with your bet. People play low hands in the game and some of your opponents are highly likely to call your bet. That's just the way it is.

Anyhow you bet and all four of the checkers call, more or less as expected. And they all probably have better fits with the flop than you. Now you might feel foolish about the bet. However, the bet was all right, but only because you'll be playing more hands and next time you do this, hopefully you'll have an actual flop fit. And they don't know, at this point that you have junk. (A pair of queens and a 3rd nut back-door flush draw for half the pot is junk).

Anyhow, the turn makes low and a low straight. MP1 bets after two checks. Looks a lot like MP1 has a low or possibly a straight. (I have not read the results. I don't plan to read the results.)

Then the river makes your back-door 3rd nut club flush but UTG suddenly comes alive and bets. Hard to say why UTG is betting. There are 18690 ways UTG can have the club flush and you can only beat 9650 of them, roughly half. Since UTH is betting, I'd guess he probably has the ace flush or king flush, so you're probably even less than a fifty fifty favorite to have your club flush beat UTG's club flush. Somewhat balancing this is the possibility UTG could be betting the nut low or doing something purely stupid.

Assuming MP1 has a low, if UTG randomly has the club flush, you'll win high about half the time and lose high about half the time. When you win high, for every six bucks you put in the pot on the river, you'll get your own chips back, plus winning 3 bucks. When you lose high, for every six bucks you put in the pot on the river, you'll lose six bucks.

So if UTG randomly has the club flush, and it surely looks even better than that for UTG, you figure to win $3 half the time for every bet and raise on the river while losing $6 half the time for every bet and raise on the river.

You have to call the $6 bet on the river because half the time you'll win half of all the money in the pot. But you sure don't have to raise on the river!

Reply With Quote