Re: Iggy\'s Week 5 NCAA Picks
OK, apparently I was 100% lying when I said I was done betting for the week. I'm actually going to be on three more games tomorrow. (I know, nail one game and I get cocky.)
<u>Maryland at Rutgers -17.5 (Risk 1.1u to win 1u)</u>
So, if everybody's fading Dr. Bob, does that mean it's time to start following him again? Probably not, but I looked over his analysis and I think it's on solid ground. Basically, Rutgers strengths are running the ball and defending the run. Meanwhile, Maryland's a perfect matchup for them. The Terps can't throw the ball at all (108th in the country) and have had trouble defending the run too. (They rank 70th but playing WVU skews that a little).
Without the matchup difference, Sagarin says the line should be at 15.5 and that's without WVU's loss making Maryland look worse. If the 'eers are really as bad as they played against USF and Marshall, than the Terps 17-point home loss is a little more damaging. Finally, Maryland's coming off an extremely demoralizing loss where they blew a 21 point lead in the last 20 minutes and should have a letdown. While I'd feel better back on the other side of the 17, I still think this is worth a small play.
<u>Oklahoma/Colorado under 55 (Risk 1.56u to win 1u)</u>
If I'm going to follow Dr. McRunsCold, I'm certainly going to make a play on MyTurn's POTW. Honestly, my analysis here is pretty much nil, other than that the public's going to like the over with the numbers OU's put up this year and that OU's going to be looking ahead to Texas which should cut down their big-play potential a little bit.
<u>LSU at Tulane +41 (Risk 1.03u to win 1u)</u>
Yes, I'm still capable of original thought. I said earlier in the week that if Tulane got up to 41 or 42, I'd think about hopping on. It did and I did. If there was ever a situation for one team to overlook another one, this would be it. This is a sandwich game coming right between the big game against South Carolina and the mammoth showdown with Florida. And to make it worse, it's on the road. LSU's going to sleepwalk from start to finish and probably end up winning something like 45-7.
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