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Now you have to decide if Villain would call your bet with anything worse than queens over jacks with an ace kicker.


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Or to be totally pedantic, whether that opponent would fold a better or equal hand to yours, for example K´s up or Q´s up Ace kicker. And when they call, what proportion of worse hands do they have.

As the players loose-passive and called in a raised pot, their check & calls don´t mean very much, and that kind of player frequently likes to check/raise IMO if they´ve made a big hand, and is most unlikely to fold an overpair, or Q´s up.

So actually I think the river bet is flat wrong.


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What about call with a worse one? Like any worse Queen, Seven, Four, pocket pair, mistaken "low" or any other piece of crap that these fishy players will show down assuming you were just trying to bluff with a busted low draw? To say that a river bet is flat wrong is, well, flat wrong.

Re: the turn bet being dubious..
I think there's loads of value in the turn bet HU. The guy plays close to half his hands and rarely ever bets and raises.. he could have anything and probably has a worse low draw with a worse pair or no pair or possibly a flush draw.

A little more on betting the river:
This type of player doesn't bluff very often and only bets very good hands last to act at the river. He's probably not trying to CR this river, since most people assume that others think and play like they do. These types of players rarely bluff, so it's an easy fold if he does surprise us and CR.