Re: Final table move (Live)
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Hard to say if one was not at the table, though not knowing the table dynamics or Villains reactions to certain moves before ...
What is obvious for me?
1) Villain is the 2nd big stack - thus it should be hard for him to call with anything but a very good hand as he risks to bust in a situation in which he still would be 2nd in chips!
=> PRO.
2) Folding in this situation still means for Villain dropping his M from 6.4 to 5.
=> CONTRA.
3) You already made this move once before. As this is somewhat spectacular people will have it in mind still.
=> CONTRA.
4) Villain raised while having four active players behind him!
=> CONTRA.
5) Villain gave you (as the bigstack!) odds of 2.7:1 - hard to fold with a somewhat decent hand. This means he was obiously not afraid of a call?
=> CONTRA.
Summarized I still donīt know if Í like it. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] But I tend to dislike it - as you are the chipleader and may wait for some better spots for a normal steal - and there should be a huge amount of them, regarding the other stacks!
But with an assumption of a raising-range as well as a calling-range for Villain this should be screwed down to a simple math-problem, shouldnīt it?
Can somebody calculate this? A very rough (!!) calculation showed me that the move gets +/-cEV if Villain folds about 60% of his original raising-range!! If he folds less or calls us with more than 40% of his range, we lose chips ...
By the way: I donīt know if the $EV calc makes the move even worse or makes it better.
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Within this analysis, Tackle, you are underestimating the power of the 3-bet (live or online). It mitigates some of your contras.
I'll give villain a decent range, say that he folds 50% of the time and you pick up 90K.
When he calls the other 50%, you're gonna win ~30% of the time, and when you win that 30% of the time, you're gonna take 1st your 2nd a [censored] huge chunk of the time.
I think that the play is probably slightly -Cev, but in terms of moving up the prize ladder, I think given the circumstances, it's +$EV and you should make the play.
Barry
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