Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
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So without considering the meaning of the "sick smile" I would call the river getting 12:1 and expect to lose. Your read makes it closer, but I am trying to train myself not to fold big pots for one bet unless I am dead certain.
I would also consider the possibility that he raised KQs and even KQo from UTG.
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I have the opposite issue, I rarely fold big pots - this one I think I can fold however. Thats why I asked if I was crazy in the OP. Getting 13:1 I only need to be good 8% of the time for a call to be +EV but I was not so sure I'm good even 5% of the time due to the combinations and read combined. Luckily I missed the A on the river so the decision wasn't a real-issue, but its an interesting situation.
I saw the villain open limp with KQs in late position, thats why I don't think I can include that within his range for an UTG open raise.
Jskills: if you fold the turn getting 11:1 then your making a BIG mistake.
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