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Old 11-01-2007, 10:15 AM
Mr Rick Mr Rick is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 564
Default Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.

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You are getting 11:1 on the river.

If an A hits his possible handsuts
AA:1, KK:3, QQ:3, JJ:3, TT:6, AK:2, AQ:3

He wins: 10, you win:9 You tie:2.

Based on his betting and his smile he is most likely to have JJ or AQ. However, he could also have TT and have been smiling because he just took away 3 of your outs. Likewise, KK is possible too.

I would call an A with a bet on the river.

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Rick - i think we can remove AA and KK from his range of hands, he goes bananas with those holdings (saw both happen already). I also think we can slightly discount TT, not positive he would be the turn , perhaps discount that as part of his range by 20%.

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Taking your reads that leaves us with the following combinations should an A hit on the river:

QQ:3, JJ:3, TT:~5, AK:2, AQ:3

He wins:9, You win:5 You Tie:2.

So without comsidering the meaning of the "sick smile" I would call the river getting 12:1 and expect to lose. Your read makes it closer, but I am trying to train myself not to fold big pots for one bet unless I am dead certain.

I would also consider the possibility that he raised KQs and even KQo from UTG.
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