[Jeff76]

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But assuming split jacks at this point, which is the most likely hand, for him to be ahead he needs to have either a diamond or a ten in the hole.

[/ QUOTE ]He can also have a 9 in the hole, another J, or a Queen. If we consider all 9-Q + diamonds, that's 19 cards out of 38 remaining that he could have along with another J that put us slightly behind. Assuming his kicker is completely random (saying he'll be as likely to call on 3rd with a 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] as the T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]), betting here is breakeven at best. However, starting with a 3 flush fits the action so far as well, so we might really be drawing thin if we are behind. Obviously I didn't count all of this at the table, but that was close to my sense of the situation at the time.

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Granted against his range we're probably only about a 55% favourite, so we're not ahead by THAT much, but in Stud we have to take advantage of small edges like this.

[/ QUOTE ]I thought in Stud most small edges dissapear because the pot size gets so big that most everyone plays correctly anyway? I thought HE was were it's important to push small edges.

I guess my reasoning was: I don't see that we can make villain make a mistake by betting, a free card doesn't really hurt us that much if we are only ever ahead by 55%, but villain can really punish US if we are behind.