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Old 09-08-2007, 06:49 PM
Sevenfold Sevenfold is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 275
Default Re: Got him in the middle

Jam it up again.

If seat 8 had three Ks we would have heard from him by now. If he does----so be it, he played it well.

It looks like you are up against two hands of Ks, and you have to love this spot. You are not necessarily ahead though.

While there is a 2 and a 5 dead, seat 4 could have made 2 pair by now, and seat 8 is playing? A flush draw? Pocket 4s? I'd pop it again on 5th and see what 6th street brings.

If: You are up against dead Ks in each hand, you are a monster fav at 65%.

If: Seat 4 has the other aces, and 8 has bare Ks, you are a little better than even money.

If: Seat 8 is playing pocket 4s say, then:
-----if seat 4 has aces, you are a small dog.

----if seat 4 has the other bare Ks you are still a huge money fav even though trailing at the moment.

If: they both have 2 pair---You are STILL a big money fav.

Sooooo----the only bad result here is if someone has a set, and that looks unlikely.

You are either a slight underdog, or have a decent-to-huge edge.

In situations like this, you of course won't be able to calculate the odds so precise, but they are playing dead cards and yours are all clean (-6d).

You should be capping 5th if given the option, not caring much what the other players do. If someone folds, fine, so much the better for you, but if they don't, thats OK.

In situations like this, where someone starts with Ks, and someone else makes open Ks, the original player sometimes goes berserk at the audacity of the other playing making 'his' hand, and bets and bets and bets (I know you don't have three Ks) regardless of what the third player in the hand might be doing.

Given that tendency, and with the majority of the scenarios favoring you, you should want to get the money in. You can't pick and choose their hands, i.e., if he has Ks do I want to raise? What if he has aces? You can't read the hand that accurately at this point, and you don't need to.

You aren't going to win this hand the majority of the time, but you will win plenty whan you do getting 2-1, so you can't say, "Oh, I lost, I should have slowed down."

Jam it jam it jam it.
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