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Old 10-18-2007, 07:29 PM
palman palman is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 497
Default Re: This can\'t be right? 30/60 2-7 *move to other poker please*

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I would never keep the 9 here on first draw when you both draw 1. How could you possibly make money long term doing this? Your just a slight favorite to win if 1 more BB is going in total in the next two streets, if he comes alive we are losing.
Empiron would check raise the turn with a clean 9, but will not donk-bluff the river. So we may of kept this 9 as an "equity-favorite" just to fold the river or to fold the turn because we don't know if we can profitably break this hand. Ugly spot to get pat, the turn will be much easier and profitable to play if you draw.

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If you can't call a c/r because you figure you're drawing dead often enough, isn't that all the reason to keep the 9? villian has a tough time playing a 9 here if he catches it on the 2nd draw after you pat. And it's easily profitable to keep the 9 here because you're about 50/50 to end up with the best hand and there was a cap predraw. you might be slightly -EV with your dark bet on the 2nd draw, but the size of the pot already more than makes up for that.
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